Market Update to Sept. 30/10 Red Deer
Price Range	All Active	Pending	Active 1 Year Ago	Sold MTD Sept. 23/10	Sold MTD Sept. 30/10	Sold MTD Sept. 30/09
< 100	28	1	23	2	2	4
100 – 150	41	0	24	5	5	3
150 – 200	67	0	54	7	9	6
200 – 250	105	3	106	15	18	25
250 – 300	141	7	81	23	29	24
300 – 325	52	1	40	11	16	14
325 – 350	62	1	43	10	13	13
350 – 375	44	4	33	8	8	8
375 – 400	53	3	38	3	3	6
400 – 450	48	1	44	5	10	14
450 – 500	35	1	26	1	1	3
500+	76	1	66	5	7	2
Total	752	23	578	95	121	122
Avg. Price	$330,639.		$335,691.	$294,270.	$300,488.	$297,656.
Days On Market	61		47	55	57	43

Market Update – We have stated in the past that new home construction is only necessary if we have population growth to fill those new homes.  A healthy residential construction industry is one of the engines that drives an economy.

 

The negative growth trend of the past 3 quarters was abruptly reversed in the second quarter of this year and while those numbers don’t suggest a return to the heyday, they are very encouraging and may signal the beginning of better times in Alberta.

 

The effect of this recent growth will most likely be felt in the rental vacancy rates, but when vacancy rates go down, people start to look at moving from rental to ownership and the housing cycle begins.

 

Of course, this growth must continue in order to see long term benefit and that requires jobs.  Jobs bring people to Alberta and the biggest job generator in Alberta has always been the energy industry.  We suspect that the oil sands are the largest contributor to the recent growth which will not have an immediate impact on central Alberta.  But, energy activity anywhere in Alberta contributes to the overall economic health of the whole province

 

Migrants Reverse Course – Dan Sumner – Economist, ATB Financial

 

One of the best measures of the relative economic and social health of a region is whether migrants are moving to or from the region. According to Statistics Canada data released this morning, Alberta just experienced its most solid quarter of interprovincial migration in a year.

 

2,820 Canadians moved to Alberta from other provinces during the second quarter of 2010, up from only 312 in the first quarter and net-negative migration in the two quarters before that (see graph). In addition to the positive reading on interprovincial migration, Alberta’s total population grew at the fastest rate in Canada, rising by 0.5% to 3.72 million.

 

The main factor driving Canadians to move between provinces is jobs and job prospects. During the mid-decade unsustainably strong job prospects drove migrants to Alberta from all corners the country, although this trend reversed course quickly during the recession.

 

Statistics Canada also noted that behind Alberta’s lofty population growth rate was a strong level of natural increase (births minus deaths). This is partly due to demographics as Alberta’s population also has the lowest median age at 35.8 (national average = 39.7), and more young people means more babies.

 

The strongest reading on interprovincial migration since the recession began is good news for a province that isn’t used to losing residents to other provinces on a net basis. However, considering the jobs market here is unlikely to return to its pre-recession pace for some time, Canadians are unlikely to flock to Alberta at the rates they did during the boom.

Tags: Red Deer real estate market update