November 17, 2011 – Weekly Market Update
Alberta continues to shine! Population growth, employment growth, construction starts are all beating the odds and going up when the rest of the world seems to be struggling to stay at an even keel. Oil prices and activity in the oil patch are obviously what is driving this latest little surge.
Recent news that the US Government has postponed their decision on the Keystone pipeline may have a tempering effect on oil prices. As production grows in the oil sands, the ability to get the oil to markets is critical. Not having the Keystone pipeline limits the amount of oil that can be exported and may drive prices down as supply outstrips demand. Obviously lower prices could cause a slowdown in our local economy, so we have to hope for a quick resolution to the pipeline issue.
Alberta Adding Jobs by Todd Hirsch, Senior Economist ATB
While the rest of the global economy is bracing for a slowdown, Alberta remains a very enviable engine of economic growth.
Defying our expectations of a slight pull-back in the labour market, the provincial economy added 7,500 new jobs. This is the sixth consecutive monthly gain; compared to October of last year, Alberta employment is up 4.3%. The unemployment rate stands at a very balanced 5.1% (down from 5.4% in September).
This stands in sharp contrast with the rest of Canada, where this morning’s job report was very negative. Overall, the national economy shed 54,000 jobs—a far cry from the expectation for a gain of 20,000 jobs. Losses were concentrated in Ontario (-38,700), British Columbia (-10,800), and Quebec (-13,300). Canada’s unemployment rate ticked up from 7.2% in September to 7.3% in October.
While Alberta did add jobs over the month, they were virtually all in part-time work; full-time positions actually fell back by about 800 jobs. The new positions were dominated by gains in retail and wholesale trade (+11,600), oil and gas extraction (+8,800), and agriculture (+5,200). Losses were reported in professional, scientific and technical jobs (-8,000) and construction (-3,900).
The solid job gains in Alberta reflect an economy that continues to outpace the rest of the country. The province remains an island of growth, propped up by high oil prices, drilling activity and spending in the oilsands. The hit to Canada’s overall economy, however, will add to the level of worry at the Bank of Canada as the country continues to be weighed down by a souring global environment.
