Sales in the first half of November in Red Deer were down slightly from the same period in October as well as the same period in 2012.  The number of active listings is down very slightly and is holding at a level that keeps the market in balance – where neither the seller or the buyer has the advantage.

Sales activity is strongest in the $300,000 – $400,000 price range which is also where there are the most active listings.  A good, balanced market as well if the current trends continue.  The market where the buyer still has the advantage is in the $400,000 plus price range where the sales to listing ratio is lower.

The long term forecast for Alberta remains strong as we continue to lead the country in growth.  That growth should support a good real estate market going into 2014.  Strong building starts in both the residential and commercial sector are huge contributors to a strong economy.

Building permits inch higher – Todd Hirsch, Chief Economist, ATB Financial

Construction activity is an important driver of Alberta’s economy, and over the last few years it has remained remarkably steady. New information released by Statistics Canada suggests this trend will continue in 2014.

Alberta’s total building permits are an excellent indicator of future construction activity. In September, they rose 5.2 per cent over the previous month, to $1.43 billion. However, residential and non-residential permits moved in opposite directions.

Residential builders took out $954 million in permits in September, a steep jump from August and the second-highest single month on record. (The all-time record of $978 million was set in June of 2007.) The rising value of residential permits suggests that home builders are reacting to strong demand for new homes. This is consistent with other residential real estate indicators, such as home sales and rising prices, for both new and existing homes. It also makes sense given the steady inflow of interprovincial migrants to Alberta this year.

The increase in residential permits was almost completely offset by a drop in non-residential permits. They tumbled 18 per cent month-over-month to $475 million. That’s a nine-month low. The size and scope of some non-residential construction projects, including office towers, shopping malls and industrial complexes, makes them much more volatile month to month.

Combined total building permits in Alberta continue to rise. Over the last twelve months, permits are 19.7 per cent higher than the previous twelve months. This bodes well for construction spending and employment in the near-term.

Red Deer Market Update – Sales to the middle of September are ahead of the same time last month and should finish the month strong with 54 sales currently pending.  Assuming we maintain the current pace, the overall Red Deer market will end the month still well into seller’s market territory.  The one part of the market that was slower has had a great start this month and it looks like the market may be expanding into $500,000 plus price range.

Of course activity in the lower price ranges continues to be strong with the most sales in the $300,000 – $350,000 price range.  Fortunately the number of active listings seems to be adequate to meet the demand.  The reason that the market is strong can be explained by the article below.  More than 80,000 new jobs in Alberta in the past year!  People are moving here to take advantage of those jobs and demand for housing is one of the first indicators.  While many moving here aren’t ready to buy, they drive up the cost of rent and drive the renters who can buy into the starter market.  The sellers are then in a position to move up…. and the cycle continues.

Alberta adds fewer jobs in September – Todd Hirsch • Chief Economist, ATB

Alberta remains the engine of Canada’s job creation machine, but in September it shifted into a slightly lower gear.
Last month, the province added 4,000 new jobs, below the average monthly increase of 5,000 positions during the past two years, according to Statistics Canada. Despite the dip, there was a much larger increase in full-time work (+7,500) between August and September, which was offset by a decrease in part-time work (-3,500). All figures are seasonally adjusted.

While there was only a modest increase in the number of people working, the size of Alberta’s labour force actually slipped slightly last month by 7,600. With fewer people actively in the job market, the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 per cent from 4.8 per cent. Alberta is now tied with Saskatchewan for lowest unemployment rate in the country.

Nationally, a modest 11,000 jobs were created, which fell below the consensus forecast of economists who expected a gain of 16,000. The unemployment rate, however, dropped to 6.9 per cent—the first time it has been below 7 per cent in almost five years. But this was also prompted by a contraction in the size of the labour force.

The long-term trend shows Alberta’s job market is still doing quite well. Since September of last year there has been a net gain of 80,300 jobs (+3.7 per cent), representing nearly 4 in 10 of the new jobs created nationally. Sectors with the strongest employment gains in the province include professional, scientific and technical services (+27,500), health care and social assistance (+20,500), and wholesale and retail trade (+17,900).