January 6, 2012 – Weekly Market Update
What is a perfect real estate market? Well, to a home buyer it might be low prices and an ample supply to choose from. But a seller sees things a little differently. He wants a high price. It gets a little confusing when we are buyers and sellers all at once.
Our vision of a perfect real estate market is one where neither the buyer or the seller has an advantage. Where price changes are consistent with inflation and housing is affordable for the average citizen. According to the Royal Bank’s most recent housing affordability report, Alberta remains one the most affordable housing markets in Canada which may explain why folks are moving here.
Going into 2012 most central Alberta markets still favour buyers. That means more homes for sale than buyers looking to buy. We saw signs in the last half of 2011 that trend was changing and things are moving toward balance, but it will likely take some more time before we can expect to see prices moving up. People are moving to Alberta at a quicker rate than in the past several years, but the builders are ready and able to provide a boost to inventory levels which will keep supply and demand in balance.
Interprovincial Migration Pulls Back in Q3 – ATB Financial Weekly Economic Bulletin
After tanking during 2009 and remaining fairly slow during 2010 Alberta net-interprovincial migration picked back up again in the first half of this year. And while Canadians continued to move here during Q3, the interprovincial migration rate fell to its lowest level of the year.
A total of 3,136 Canadians moved here from other provinces between July and September (inclusive), down from 4,720 in Q2 and 5,275 in Q1. Despite this slowing, it is still the highest rate for Q3 net interprovincial migration since 2006.
Through the first three quarters of this year a total of 13,131 Canadians moved here from other provinces, up from only 2,106 in 2010 and 4,369 in 2009. While migration levels are unlikely to rise significantly in Q4 (Q4 is typically not a strong period for migration for seasonal reasons) the relatively healthy Alberta economy should continue to entice some Canadians westward. Looking over the next few years, Alberta net-interprovincial migration should remain fairly strong as the Alberta economy continues to churn out more jobs, housing is relatively affordable, and has one of the lowest unemployment rates in Canada.
