The real estate market across central Alberta continues to hum with very strong sales, but as indicated below, supply so far is keeping up with demand which will go a long way to keeping things in balance.  While the number of listings is not quite as high as last year, there seems to be adequate inventories to satisfy demand.  Prices have definitely firmed up, but they aren’t rapidly escalating which is great for the long term good of the market.

While sellers feel great when the value of their real estate rises, it often doesn’t help once they sell and become buyers because now they have to pay those same relatively higher prices for the home they are buying.

A strong, balanced market is the ideal situation and we seem to be currently there in central Alberta except for Ponoka where buyers still have the advantage.  We expect the Ponoka market to start to benefit from strong demand elsewhere in central Alberta this year.

The reasons for our strong market remain the same – strong oil and gas activity, expansion of the Nova plant at Joffre, affordable housing costs relative to incomes, very low interest rates and lots of in-migration to Alberta as a result of strong job market and high wages.

Accommodating the Alberta bound by Will van’t Veld, Economist, ATB Financial

There’s a reason why Calgary’s CTrain has been feeling more congested lately: people have been flocking to Alberta. Not since the boom years have so many people arrived in our province—and if the pace keeps up it will have important implications for the local economy.

That people are coming to Alberta shouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, it’s slightly more surprising that it took until the first quarter of 2012 to see the numbers really spike. The unemployment rate is not only well below the national average, but wages have been steadily climbing. In fact, the average weekly wage in Alberta is now $156 higher than in Ontario.

While migrants from other provinces have recently shown more interest in our province, the upward trend in international migration has been occurring since the recession hit. Alberta gained about six thousand migrants due to international migration in the first quarter, almost double what the province was recording just five years ago.

The tremendous influx of people during the boom years caused a severe shortage of housing and other social services.

So far, Alberta’s infrastructure and housing stock appears more prepared to accommodate the growing population.

There’s a good reason for this, as housing starts, for instance, might have dipped during the past couple years, they didn’t fall off of a cliff either. Major infrastructure projects also continued to go ahead.

With companies actively recruiting out of province workers, both nationally and internationally, and the prosperity gap still heavily in Alberta’s favour, there’s a good chance more people will be Alberta bound in the coming quarters. At a certain point it may strain our ability to accommodate them, but so far so good.

Red Deer sales in April were up slightly from March but down 12% from April 2012.  The number of available listings is 8% lower than a year ago and 70 out of 426 active listings in Red Deer have sales pending.  The sales to listing ratio in Red Deer in April was 43% – solidly into Seller’s market territory.

The number of active listings in Red Deer is up in almost every price range except $250,000 – $300,000 where more than 90% of the inventory sold last month.  Sales were also strong between $300,000 and $400,000 although there are more choices for buyers in that range.

It appears that central Alberta and Red Deer in particular are an attractive option for folks moving here from the rest of Canada and the world.  Jobs are obviously the thing that attract people to central Alberta.  The $1 billion expansion at Joffre and continued demand for our central Alberta frac crews and equipment are certainly two major contributors to the demand for housing.

Alberta (re)bound?  Todd Hirsch, Senior Economist, ATB Financial

Our neighbour Saskatchewan may surpass Alberta this year as the fastest growing provincial economy. And for several quarters in a row, we seemed to be losing people to the good job opportunities there. But this trend may now be reversing, with the flow of migrants once again shifting in favour of wild rose country.

The push-and-pull between these two prairie sisters has seen some dramatic movements of people over the decades. For most of the period of 1985 to 2005, Alberta was the clear winner in drawing labour from Saskatchewan. But in 2007—perhaps due to an overheated housing market in Alberta and good jobs cropping up in Saskatchewan—the flow reversed sharply. In the third quarter of 2007 alone, a net 1,763 people moved from Alberta back home to Saskatchewan.

But in the fourth quarter of 2012, an estimated 2,166 people moved from Saskatchewan to Alberta; at the same time, only 1,532 moved in the other direction. That left Alberta with a net gain of approximately 634 people between the two provinces (see graph).

It’s hard to say if the slight edge in migration to Alberta is permanent or not. Certainly the increase in housing prices in Saskatoon and Regina has lowered the price differential between the two provinces, taking away that advantage for Saskatchewan. And Alberta’s economy continues to churn out jobs (albeit at a slower rate than in 2011).

Listing inventories in Red Deer are up from last month, but down 12% from this time last year.  At the same time, March sales are up slightly from February 2013 and up substantially from March 2012.  The sales to listing ratio in Red Deer last month climbed even further into Seller’s market territory and we are now seeing evidence that prices are rising compared to last year.  The activity in Red Deer reflects a strengthening market across all of central Alberta.

The scenario of increased listings, but lower inventories than last year, coupled with stronger sales, is happening in all central Alberta markets with Red Deer and Blackfalds leading the way.  In the short term, we can expect to see slightly higher prices across central Alberta as buyers compete for the “good” homes, especially in the $200,000 – $400,000 price range.

We are constantly asked “Where is the real estate market heading?”  Predictions are obviously dangerous, but the central Alberta real estate market still rises and falls with activity in the energy sector.  If the Keystone pipeline is approved, we think we can expect the market to continue to strengthen.  If not, it is likely we will find things a little slower until another solution is found to get our heavy oil to market.  It is unquestionable that will eventually happen.  Part of the answer may be explained below:

Oil patch rides the rails to price surge — The Globe and Mail

Price discounts on western Canada’s heavy oil have narrowed dramatically, as producers move record amounts of crude by rail in order to sidestep pipeline bottlenecks and reach thirsty U.S. refineries.  The price spread between Western Canadian Select and the North American benchmark is at its narrowest in more than a year, after shrinking rapidly in the last month. WCS sold for about $78 (U.S.) a barrel late last week, about $15 a barrel less than West Texas intermediate oil. That differential had reached nearly $35 in January.

The shrinking spread gives a reprieve to energy companies producing heavy oil in western Canada.

Those companies, which include global giants and small producers, have been hammered by the steep discount, leaving some to trim their budgets and pull back on expansion plans. The reduced differential is also welcome news for the government of Alberta, which is facing its sixth deficit in a row due in part to the price gap weighing on royalty revenue.

In the first 12 weeks of 2013, the number of carloads of petroleum products shipped by U.S. and Canadian railways was up 47 per cent from its year-ago level, according to National Bank Financial’s chief economist and strategist Stéfane Marion.

“Rail pipelines,” he said in a research note Monday, “now account for more than 5 per cent of total rail traffic in Canada, a tenfold increase from just three years ago.”  Analysts at Peters & Co. Ltd. project that crude oil transported by rail from Western Canada is expected to exceed 250,000 barrels a day by the end of 2013.

“The recent tightening in Canadian crude differentials is being assisted by the fact that material volumes are now being transported to market by rail,” the firm said Monday. “The use of rail is allowing for another outlet or market clearing mechanism other than pipeline.”

Meanwhile, railways are ramping up their crude capacity. “We see it as a sustainable, long-term growth market for our railroad,” said spokesman Ed Greenberg of Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd., noting that the company anticipates moving 70,000 carloads of crude by rail this year, up from 53,000 in 2012. Looking to 2016, CP plans to be moving two to three times its present volume of crude……

Energy companies themselves are showing signs of optimism and applauding railroads.  “The options for transporting western Canadian crude oil are in the process of being expanded through pipeline alterations and expansions as well as with the rapidly expanding use of rail for transportation to refining and export points,” Whitecap Resources Inc. said in a press release last month….

Spring has arrived in central Alberta, at least in the real estate market.  While the weather still says “winter”, new listings are coming on the market and buyers are busy snapping the good ones up almost as quickly as they come on.  While changes to the mortgage rules seemed to slow the market last summer and fall, interest rates as low as 2.89% for a five year mortgage term are probably helping buyers offset those changes.

The changes to the mortgage rules still seem to be creating some difficulty for first time buyers while low interest rates are benefitting move up buyers.  There is the possibility that some first time buyers were frightened out of the market and haven’t figured out the interest rate advantage yet.  It’s time they checked again while there are still adequate starter homes available. 

Home building in balance – Todd Hirsch, Senior Economist, ATB Financial

There are many words used to describe the Canadian housing sector at the moment, including “bubble,” “overheated” and “dangerous.” Most of those worrisome terms are in reference to residential markets in Toronto and Vancouver. But here in Alberta, the best word to describe the housing market is: balanced.

In February, home builders started construction on 33,337 new houses throughout our province. This figure is seasonally adjusted and reported at annualized rates (i.e., the number of homes that would be built in one calendar year if the current pace continues for 12 months). That’s up from the 29,300 total in January, and mostly on par with activity over the last year.

But over the last five years in Alberta, home builders have been on a bit of a rollercoaster ride. With starts peaking above 50,000 during the heady days of 2008, too many new homes were being placed on the market.

When the economic slowdown came the following year, housing starts tumbled sharply—as did the selling price for both new and existing homes. There was an excess of real estate that caused the much dreaded bubble.

Since that time, things have improved. Even though 2011 was another boom year for Alberta’s economy, home builders showed a bit more constraint— housing starts climbed their way back to the 5-year average, but never spiked too much higher than that.

This time around, builders have avoided a glut of inventory on the market. As a result, Alberta’s housing market enters 2013 in excellent balance.

There was one buyer for every three homes for sale in Red Deer in January.  That puts us firmly into Seller’s market territory.  The reason is likely that buyers are entering the market before spring inventories have a chance to establish.

Sales are typically slow in January and February and pick up in the spring along with the number of active listings.  This year, the Buyers are out early, probably because the rental market is experiencing low vacancy rates and rising rents and low interest rates are making home buying an attractive option.

As always, there are reasons to be concerned and there are reasons to be optimistic.  It seems Albertans are choosing to be optimistic.

Behind the Bank’s Change of Tune by Will van ‘t Veld Economist, ATB Financial

Last week, the Bank of Canada stated it is no longer looking at raising interest rates any time soon. That’s because Canadian households now seem to be taking on debt at a slower pace and inflation remains tame.

But the central bank’s outlook shift is also due to a more negative view of Canadian economic growth. And that’s what makes it so noteworthy.

Since the fourth quarter of 2008, Canada has averaged an annualized quarterly growth rate of about 2 per cent. Not stellar, but better than most industrialized nations. Household and government spending has led the way, contributing an average of 1.2 and 0.4 per cent, respectively. But these sectors are running out of steam. With debt loads rising, governments and households will be looking closer at their spending.

If you could flip a switch, this would be the perfect time to shift from domestic consumption spending to business investment and export-driven growth. But there is no switch. Investment spending has been a huge boost to Western Canada, where real business investment is up 44 per cent since 2009, but elsewhere in the country business hasn’t been so eager.

Excluding B.C., Alberta and Saskatchewan, business investment in Canada has rebounded 20 per cent, putting real business investment at near 2008 levels.

As for Canada’s trade situation, it’s not great.  Between manufacturers getting hammered and oil producers getting a reduced price, Canada’s net trade position has been a significant drag on growth.

There is hope the economy is in a transition. A rebounding U.S. economy will likely be good news for exports and investment growth and pipeline developments will likely reduce the price differential. If this doesn’t play out, the Bank of Canada might stay on the sidelines for even longer than any time soon.

January MLS sales in central Alberta are following last year’s trend.  One difference is the number of pending sales in Red Deer at 41 which is significantly higher than it was last January 15^th.  Activity after the Christmas lull typically starts out slow in January and builds to a peak in April or May.  That high pending sales count may be a sign that the strong spring market has come early.

The article below certainly explains why activity is already strong.  Lots of people are moving to Alberta where there are more jobs and better wages.  It’s difficult to predict how busy things will get, but if the world economy doesn’t get any worse and the US economy continues its gradual recovery, there will be lots of demand for our oil and natural gas.  Strong demand for those commodities means stable prices which means continued exploration and drilling.

At the risk of being repetitive, a strong energy sector means a strong central Alberta economy and all the benefits that accrue from it.  As mentioned below, new construction seems to be keeping pace, but there is the potential for some strain, which could lead to price inflation. 

Accommodating the Alberta bound – by Will van’t Veld, Economist, ATB Financial 

There’s a reason why Calgary’s C-Train has been feeling more congested lately: people have been flocking to Alberta. Not since the boom years have so many people arrived in our province—and if the pace keeps up it will have important implications for the local economy.

That people are coming to Alberta shouldn’t be a surprise. In fact, it’s slightly more surprising that it took until the first quarter of 2012 to see the numbers really spike. The unemployment rate is not only well below the national average, but wages have been steadily climbing. In fact, the average weekly wage in Alberta is now $156 higher than in Ontario.

While migrants from other provinces have recently shown more interest in our province, the upward trend in international migration has been occurring since the recession hit. Alberta gained about six thousand migrants due to international migration in the first quarter, almost double what the province was recording just five years ago.

The tremendous influx of people during the boom years caused a severe shortage of housing and other social services. So far, Alberta’s infrastructure and housing stock appears more prepared to accommodate the growing population.  There’s a good reason for this, as housing starts, for instance, might have dipped during the past couple years, they didn’t fall off of a cliff either. Major infrastructure projects also continued to go ahead.

With companies actively recruiting out of province workers, both nationally and internationally, and the prosperity gap still heavily in Alberta’s favour, there’s a good chance more people will be Alberta bound in the coming quarters. At a certain point it may strain our ability to accommodate them, but so far so good.

A familiar refrain at this time of year – listings are down.  Very normal considering most folks don’t want to be bothered with showings over the holiday season.  The difference this year is that they are down more than the last few years and,  there are more buyers out there than usual as folks continue to move to Alberta for all those great paying energy sector jobs.  It’s quite possible that those looking to sell after Christmas might be best served by jumping right into the market rather than waiting until spring when there will be more competition. 

Excerpts from the ATB Economic Comment by Todd Hirsch and Will Van’t Weld

Steady housing market – There were continued signs Alberta’s housing market is in relatively good shape. Nationally, urban housing starts dipped slightly in November to a seasonally adjusted 174,000, which is a pretty significant drop from the 200,000-unit pace Canada has been building at for much of 2012. Alberta, on the other hand, recorded the second highest housing start figure of the year at 35,500.

New housing price index data were also released this week. Since 2011, the national year-over-year monthly growth rate has been a steady 2.27 per cent, but this hides some important variation between provinces. In Ontario, the rate averaged 3.89 per cent; Alberta’s growth rate averaged just 0.73 per cent; and in B.C. it averaged -0.6 per cent.

Recently, Alberta’s rate of growth has quickened, rising by 1.62 per cent in October over 2011, but in Ontario and B.C. the rate has remained relatively constant.

Sticker shock? Not so much for new homes – Fresh paint, new appliances, shiny bathrooms— there’s plenty of appeal to owning a brand new home. And consistent with the currently balanced real estate market in Alberta, the price tags on these newly built abodes remain steady.

In October, the price index on a new home in Alberta stood at 94.2—up only modestly from 94.1 in September. The index is based on new home prices in 2007. Setting that price to an index of 100, the price of new homes in Alberta fell by about 10 per cent during 2008, and has been almost unchanged since then. Calgary’s new home price index in October (98.0) is higher than Edmonton’s (90.8), but both cities remain below the price level five years ago.

Compared to our neighbouring provinces, the new home market in Alberta is still lagging. In British Columbia, the price index of 98.8 is slightly higher than Alberta’s—but it has been trending gradually downward since early 2010.

Saskatchewan is a completely different story. New home prices did wobble during the economic downturn, but have been rising steadily since then. In October 2012, the index in that province stood at 134.0—suggesting prices today are higher by more than a third compared to 2007.

Prices in Saskatchewan have risen more quickly than in Alberta, but the index does not compare the absolute price tag across provinces. Saskatchewan’s home prices are still only catching up to the much higher values in Alberta and British Columbia.

Red Deer home sales in November almost kept pace with October sales while the number of active listings fell to their lowest level in more than 2 years.  Year to date sales in Red Deer are up 11.4% in 2012 compared to 2011 while MLS sales in central Alberta are up 12.1%.

The most active market in Red Deer last month was between $300,000 – $400,000 while listings in that range have consistently fallen over the past few months.  The sales to listing ratio in that price range is 43%, representing a strong seller’s market.

The trend to fewer active listings and strong sales has been prevalent across central Alberta this fall.  More than 40,000 people have moved to Alberta so far this year.  Many of those people are not in a position to purchase a home.  Some have an unsold home where they came from.  Some can’t buy until they establish credit or job security.  Those folks are renters and they are putting pressure on the rental market.  The vacancy rate is less than 1% and rents are rising, pushing renters into buying their first homes.

Recent tightening of mortgage financing rules seems to have had a calming effect on the Toronto and Vancouver markets, but not so in central Alberta where that tight rental market is making home ownership attractive and where higher incomes make it possible to buy in spite of tougher mortgage rules.

So what’s in store for the central Alberta real estate market?  Predictions are very dangerous, especially now with all the turmoil in the world and even the most respected economists can’t agree on what the future holds.

The United States are headed toward the “fiscal cliff” and if the two political parties can’t come to an agreement by the end of the year, the country could end up back in recession.  In spite of their problems, the US has shown signs of recovery this year.  Growth has been slow, but the housing market is showing signs of life again and some economic indicators are more positive.  95% of Alberta’s exports go to the US, so their wellbeing is tied directly to ours.

Of course, there are still problems in Europe and the middle-east and the red hot economies of China and south-east Asia have slowed, raising the prospect of a world-wide recession.  It seems there is doom and gloom everywhere.  There is also much debate about the world oil situation.  Some predict that the US will be self-sufficient and not need our oil.  Obviously there are difficulties getting our oil to other markets due to a lack of pipelines and the difficulty in getting new ones approved.  We are currently selling our oil at a substantial discount to world prices and the existing pipelines are full.

But, there is optimism too.  Many experts believe that the shale oil reserves touted to make the US self-sufficient will not produce the huge volumes predicted and the cost of extracting that oil is too high in actual and environmental costs.  They also believe the Keystone pipeline will be approved early in 2013 and construction will start shortly after.  We will find a way to get our oil to market, whether it is via the west coast or through existing natural gas pipelines to the east coast.  The price of natural gas has been creeping back to more normal levels and there are actually some gas wells being drilled again in Alberta this winter.

Obviously, our well-being relies on a strong energy sector, but there are other industries that are doing well contributing to our economy in Alberta.  Farmers have had a very good year.  Grain prices are high and crops were good.  Our forestry industry is also experiencing a good year with demand for our lumber up due to improved construction starts in Canada and the US.

The Alberta economy has been the strongest in Canada this year and will continue that way for the near future.  Canada is still a model for the rest of the world when it comes to fiscal management and our banking industry is universally admired.  There is no doubt that we are in the best place in the world and the future here is very bright relative to anywhere else.  That means that people will continue to move to Alberta which drives demand for new construction, new infrastructure and economic growth.  Life in Alberta is good!

The Red Deer market continues to forge ahead with November sales keeping pace with September and October.  In the meantime, the active listing count is still dropping, making it tougher for buyers to find that perfect home.  If the trend to fewer active listings and strong sales continues, prices will start to adjust.

There is lots of optimism that two new pipelines to take oil to eastern Canada and the US are imminent, natural gas prices are rising and it looks like the future is bright for Alberta.

Small is Beautiful – Todd Hirsch, Senior Economist, ATB Financial – Small- and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) are the heart and soul of many communities throughout the country. In fact, nearly 95 per cent of companies in Canada are considered small or medium in size. Given that, it’s a good thing that their business optimism is turning higher.

According to a survey conducted monthly by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business, the index of confidence among SMEs in Alberta rose to 72.2—more than a full point higher than the reading of 71.1 in September. On balance, Alberta businesses are more optimistic than the Canadian average, but the national figure did rise by a larger amount in October (from 62.0 to 65.6). Businesses in Newfoundland and Labrador continue to be the most optimistic, followed by Alberta and Saskatchewan.

Measured on a scale of 0 to 100, an index level above 50 means owners expecting their businesses’ performance to be stronger in the next year outnumber those expecting weaker performance. According to past results, index levels normally range between 65 and 70 when the economy is growing at its potential.

The high level of optimism in Alberta is attributable to relative stability in the oil and gas sector, as well as the other supporting industries throughout the province such as agriculture and forestry. A significant number of SMEs in Alberta are in the construction and energy sectors, and with those performing well at the moment, it is little wonder that independent entrepreneurs are seeing good days ahead.

Alberta’s housing starts hanging in, Todd Hirsch, Senior Economist, ATB Financial – Despite the anxieties in Europe, uncertainty in the U.S., and a faltering economy in other parts of Canada, Alberta remains remarkably stable. The province’s balanced housing market has been one of the most convincing indicators of that.

Construction got started on 33,127 new homes in Alberta last month (adjusted for seasonality). That is essentially unchanged from September. Over the first ten months of 2012, total housing starts are higher by 33 per cent over the same ten months of last year—a significant increase given the slowing of the housing market elsewhere in the country.

Nationally, housing starts slipped to 204,107 units, down from 223,995 in September—lower than the consensus forecast of 213,000. However, Alberta’s housing market has held up better than most other provinces. The number of starts in October is only slightly below the 10-year average for the province (34,800). And if you omit 2006 and 2007 from the calculation—the two record-setting years for housing starts—last month’s figure is actually higher than average (31,300).  A strong labour market, high average wages, and surging consumer sentiment have helped keep Alberta’s housing market on its feet. But almost most importantly, the province is once again a strong attractor of inter-provincial migrants—many of them moving to Alberta to find work. On a net basis, over 20,200 people from other provinces have moved to Wild Rose Country over the first half of 2012. That alone provides some strong incentive for home builders to keep swinging their hammers.

This is the time of year when the market goes into a slower “winter” mode.  In spite of the sudden wintery weather, October sales were strong, keeping pace with September and up from last October.  In the meantime, the number of active listings has fallen to its lowest level in years.  Strong sales combined with a shrinking supply means the market is now in balance – where neither buyer or seller has an advantage.  A balanced market is ideal, offering buyers an ample supply of homes to satisfy their needs, and sellers an opportunity to find a buyer willing to pay a fair price.  A balanced market means prices should keep pace with inflation only.

We have been conditioned to believe that strong house price inflation is a good thing, but the only winners when that happens are the banks.  Let’s face it, house prices in any market will rise and fall in unison.  It’s a mistake to think that if my house goes up 10% in value, I can sell it and move up with the profit.  Actually, the house I will buy has also gone up 10%, and I will have to finance the difference.  Here’s a tip:  Buy bank shares.

Comparing Canada with pre-housing meltdown U.S. shows all ‘we have to fear is fear itself’ Tara Perkins – Globe & Mail – Oct 31/12

Two well-known economists suggest the angst about Canadian consumer debt is overdone.  And, one says in a new report, Canadians need not fear a U.S.style real estate meltdown.

The comments by deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal of Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce and chief economist David Rosenberg of Gluskin Sheff + Associates come amid repeated warnings for the Bank of Canada that consumers must get a handle on their record debt burden as the country heads toward an inevitable increase in interest rates.

The central bank went so far last week as to warn that it could raise rates if they don’t, though that appears unlikely at this point.  The key debt-to-income measure has been particularly worrisome, in that it has now surpassed the level at which the United States hurtled into the real estate crash.

But, Mr. Tal said Tuesday, less attention should be paid to the level, and more to the speed at which it has been rising. Several countries have had higher ratios with a meltdown, he suggested, adding that in the last three years that measure has climbed at half the speed than that of the precrash era in the United States, making it appear less threatening.

He also stressed that the quality of mortgages in Canada, as determined in large part by the credit scores of borrowers, is much better.   One-third of U.S. mortgages taken out in the U.S. in 2005 and 2006 were in negative equity positions before house prices dropped, and at least half of the mortgages had less than 5 per cent equity, making them extremely vulnerable to even a small drop in prices. In Canada, only 15 to 20 per cent of new mortgages have less than 15 per cent equity, and the negative equity position is nil, he said.

In addition, Canadian borrowers have begun reducing their exposure to rising interest rates by choosing fixed-rate mortgages over variable. The opposite occurred in the U.S., where adjustable rate mortgages remained popular until the bitter end.

Mr. Rosenberg also talked down the issue, having heard “all of the horror stories” of late. Among his points: Disposable income in Canada is “distorted” against that in the U.S. because Canadians pay for health care from taxes, household debt relative to assets is below peak levels, Canadians have more equity in their houses, wage growth in Canada is double that of the U.S., and debt-servicing abilities are “hardly being impaired.”

Mr. Tal does believe house prices in Canada will probably fall over the next two years, but there are factors to lessen the blow, leading to a soft landing. That’s what policy makers are hoping for.  Those factors include a lower degree of speculation in the Canadian market, and higher quality mortgages…..